Fed Rate Cuts 2025: Complete Timeline and Predictions

If you’ve been tracking your mortgage rate or credit card APR, you know the Federal Reserve’s moves in 2025 were anything but predictable — the Fed ended up cutting rates three times for a total of 75 basis points, but it skipped June entirely, a surprise for many who expected an earlier start. Here’s a decision-by-decision breakdown of what actually happened, why the June cut never materialized, and what the data suggests for 2026.

Total rate cuts in 2025: 3 ·
Total reduction: 75 basis points ·
Rate range after December 2025: 3.50%–3.75% ·
First cut in 2025: September 17, 2025 ·
Last cut in 2025: December 10, 2025 ·
Rate range after October 2025: 3.75%–4.00%

Seven key figures, one pattern: every 2025 cut was exactly 25 basis points, and the cumulative reduction brought the target range from 4.25%–4.50% down to 3.50%–3.75%.

Are interest rates expected to drop in 2025?

Actual rate cuts in 2025

• The Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025: September 17 (25 bps), October 29 (25 bps), and December 10 (25 bps) (Wikipedia – FOMC history).
• The total reduction was 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range from 4.25%–4.50% at the start of May to 3.50%–3.75% after the December meeting (Equals Money – Fed rate calendar).

Market expectations vs reality

• At the beginning of 2025, many analysts expected an initial cut as early as March or June. The first cut did not arrive until September 17 (Wikipedia – FOMC history).
• The June FOMC meeting produced no change, defying the consensus that had built around a mid-year start (Wikipedia – FOMC history).
• By the time the first cut came, the market had already priced in at least two reductions; the actual pace of three cuts matched the upper end of those later expectations.

The implication: market participants who bet on early cuts paid a premium for being wrong.

Will the Fed cut rates in June 2025?

Why the Fed did not cut in June

• The Fed did not cut rates in June 2025. The target range remained at 4.25%–4.50% after the June FOMC meeting (Wikipedia – FOMC history).
• In the press conference following the June meeting, Chair Powell cited still‑elevated core services inflation and a tight labor market as reasons to hold steady.

September and October cuts

• The first cut of 2025 occurred on September 17, a quarter‑point reduction to 4.00%–4.25% (Wikipedia – FOMC history).
• The second cut followed on October 29, another 25 bps, taking the range to 3.75%–4.00% (Fed FOMC press conference – Oct 29, 2025).
• At the October meeting, Powell noted that “strongly differing views” existed about how to proceed in December, and that a further cut was not a foregone conclusion (Fed FOMC press conference – Oct 29, 2025).

The pattern: the Fed’s willingness to skip June and delay December shows the committee’s data-dependent approach.

When is the next Fed interest rate decision?

Upcoming FOMC meetings in 2026

• After the December 10, 2025 decision, the next regularly scheduled FOMC meeting is January 2026 (MNI Markets – FOMC meeting calendar).
• The FOMC typically meets eight times per year; the 2026 calendar includes meetings in January, March, April (April 28–29), June, July, September, November (likely post‑election), and December (MNI Markets – FOMC meeting calendar).

Projections from J.P. Morgan

• J.P. Morgan Global Research expects the Fed to hold rates steady through 2026, with the next move more likely to be a hike than a cut if inflation persists.
• The March 17–18, 2026 meeting already saw no change, with the target range staying at 3.50%–3.75% (Equals Money – Fed rate decision – March 2026).

The pattern: the Fed is signaling a long hold. With no cuts priced in for 2026 by the committee’s own dot plot, the next decision after April 29 could be the most consequential in over a year.

When is the Fed’s next meeting?

Full FOMC schedule for 2026

• The next FOMC meeting after December 2025 is in January 2026 (MNI Markets – FOMC meeting calendar).
• The Federal Reserve publishes a calendar of meetings at federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.
• As of early 2026, no additional unscheduled meetings have been announced.

Special meetings and emergency actions

• No unscheduled inter‑meeting actions occurred in 2025 after the July 30 meeting (when rates were held at 4.25%–4.50% before the September cut).
• If a crisis emerges, the Fed can call an emergency session, but none are current planned (MNI Markets – FOMC meeting calendar).

What this means: the Fed’s schedule confirms a period of stability, with no emergency meetings planned.

Will interest rates drop to 3% again?

Current rate environment

• The federal funds rate target ended 2025 at 3.50%–3.75% (Equals Money – Fed rate decision).
• A drop to 3.00% would require additional cuts of at least 50 basis points from current levels.

Economic conditions needed for 3%

• J.P. Morgan does not anticipate additional cuts in 2026, citing persistent inflation in housing and services.
• A recession, a sharp drop in inflation below 2%, or a financial shock would be the most plausible triggers for returning to 3%.
• Market projections remain uncertain; implied probabilities from fed funds futures show a roughly 30% chance of a cut by December 2026, but no probability of reaching 3.00% within the next 12 months.

The catch: reaching 3% requires economic conditions that are not currently in the forecast.

How many times did the Fed cut rates in 2025?

Details of each cut

• The Fed cut rates exactly three times in 2025:
  – September 17: 25 bps, target 4.00%–4.25% (Wikipedia – FOMC history)
  – October 29: 25 bps, target 3.75%–4.00% (Fed FOMC press conference – Oct 29, 2025)
  – December 10: 25 bps, target 3.50%–3.75% (Wikipedia – FOMC history)
• Total reduction: 75 basis points.

Comparison with 2024 cuts

• In 2024, the Fed cut once: a 25‑bps reduction in December 2024 (taking the range from 4.50%–4.75% to 4.25%–4.50%).
• Therefore the total easing from December 2024 through December 2025 is 100 basis points (four cuts of 25 bps each).
• The 2020–2023 period saw aggressive hikes; the 2024–2025 period marks a gradual return to a looser stance.

The implication: the easing cycle from 2024 to 2025 totals 100 basis points, a measured pace.

What Fed officials and analysts are saying

“We lowered our policy interest rate by 1/4 percentage point today. There were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December, and a further reduction is not a foregone conclusion.”

— Chair Jerome Powell, FOMC press conference, October 29, 2025 (Federal Reserve official channel)

“The Committee decided to lower the target range to 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent.”

— Federal Reserve minutes, December 10, 2025 (Wikipedia – FOMC history)

“On balance, J.P. Morgan sees the Fed holding rates steady for the rest of 2026, with the next move likely a hike.”

— J.P. Morgan Global Research

The 2025 rate‑cut cycle delivered exactly what the data allowed: three cautious quarter‑point reductions, a skipped June, and a December cut that came only after Powell explicitly warned it wasn’t certain. For homeowners with adjustable‑rate mortgages and investors in short‑duration bonds, the message is clear: the Fed is willing to move slowly, and anyone trying to front‑run the next move in 2026 faces a similar risk of waiting longer than they expect. For the average borrower, the implication is that rates may stay near 3.50% for at least another year — a far cry from the near‑zero environment of 2020–2021, but also a world away from the 5.25%–5.50% peak of 2023.

Related reading: Stimulus Payment Details August 2025: Fact vs Fiction

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